(Posted by Bruce Goerlich on his blog, Thought Lobs, on 23rd April, 2015) Original article
What’s Really Happening with TV Viewing? A Second Look at Its Strength
A blog or two back I looked at the “Stürm und Drang” (thunder and lightning for those of you not into German) about levels of TV viewing. I concluded that the situation was not as dire as the industry was saying. This blog takes a second look and again confirms the underlying strength of TV.
Because there are “lies, damn lies, and statistics,” I looked at the data in three ways. First, I show that there is power in strong original content. Second, I look at an analysis of Rentrak data by a financial analyst that shows the stability in overall TV reach. Finally, I zero in on the individual components of live and time-shifted viewing.
I started out with the original episodes of the 13 strongest Primetime shows for February of this year versus February of last year (when the programs aired) to which Rentrak had Video on Demand (VOD) reporting rights. Original episodes are important because reruns have much less time shifting. As the chart below shows, there was an 18 percent growth of viewing to these episodes year-over-year, driven not by live, but by all the permutations of DVR and VOD time shifting.
One may say that the Olympics skewed the results. But the growth was across all the networks we track, not just NBC’s competitors (NBC hosted the February Olympics). Note also that these are not weight averaged by duration, leading to some differences in the overall average.
For the second analysis, following T.S. Eliot’s adage that great artists never borrow, only steal, let me show you some data from Brian Wieser, CFA, a Senior Research Analyst at Pivotal Research Group ([email protected]). In a release analysis, he focused on the value of reach to advertisers, and in fact, how reach for the top 20 networks has not fundamentally changed in the past four years.